Every so often the CNBC interviews bring on someone from either the media buying/planning side of the business or a network/cable network executive telling about how things are. With the botched soup of this year's upfront buying (see I'm using jargon) and the clear signals that the recession might be over but no one can afford expensive beer as of yet, television advertising can tell a lot of tales and it might be important to understand what is being said. The link above will take you to a basic glossary of advertising terms so when the talking heads us mumbo-jumbo, you have an idea of what they are trying to say.
The Upfront buying season occurs late spring. Upfront means buying "up front"....that is prior to the fact. The networks put on big deal dog and pony shows that preview the fall lineup. Remember this might be May and the schedule they are selling is usually middle/late September - i.e. "the fall season".
As networks rebuild and rearrange schedules they do this so media buyers (I was one) get a preview, figure out their budgets and allocations and make a deal in advance. In return, the networks run a rate card that is a discount and they generally guarantee the amount of rating points or impressions that will be delivered. This year's Upfront fell 9-15% under what was expected and the goals were not so hot so revenue that is guaranteed is way down from years past. We won't see the real bad news until 4th quarter which will be reported 1st quarter so the "cows coming home" is a long time out but they are definitely coming.
The point here is that there was just someone on CNBC talking about advertising issues for the networks. When CNBC has a guest in this area it usually is in advance of some news that is about to hit or in response to some buzz on the street. Anyway, the link in the title takes you to a glossary and you might just want to stay tuned.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Eve of 9-11
I'm surprised that on the eve of the disaster there isn't much more made of it. Realizing that it is 8 years ago it can be conceded that memories fade and many simply don't want to re-visit at length that horrible day.
I was in NYC that morning, going to work and I had just arrived at the exactly ontime LIRR Hunterspoint station (8:38) and waiting in line to climb the stairs. By the time I was approaching the #7 subway entrance the first plane had hit. Those who know the stop are familiar with the unobstructed view of Manhattan and the smoke was evident. From the distance it appeared to be just a big fire. I went down to the subway and emerged at Grand Central, walked over to 5th Ave and upward to my office. About halfway there everything stopped. Traffic stopped. Pedestrians stopped and turned to look south. The second plane had just hit and the non-curious curiosity of city folk fairly quickly moved to panic and concern. I got to the office and all eyes were on the TV monitors that dotted the offices.
The rest of the day was a blurr. Phones were out or overloaded. Cell phones were useless. I got out an email to family saying I was fine and at work...not that I was in any danger but we officed accross from Rockerfeller Center and everyone felt that was a target. My daughter was working at a magazine next to the Empire State Building and they all left work to get out of that area.
About 1p I ventured out to go to the blood bank which was lined up around the block. The first of the wall street workers who were evacuating the area were marching up Madison perhaps to apartments and I was struck by the dust. Those close to the area were easy to spot as they were covered in ash and dust..white concrete dust.
When the railroads opened up late in the day the trains were jammed as car traffic wasn't possible exiting the city. Again the concrete dust. Everyone wanted to ask them questions but there wasn't much talk and the dazed looks somewhat forbid inquiries.
Although not close and in no danger the entire episode is burned in my memory. I hope that it is still in everyone else's.
I was in NYC that morning, going to work and I had just arrived at the exactly ontime LIRR Hunterspoint station (8:38) and waiting in line to climb the stairs. By the time I was approaching the #7 subway entrance the first plane had hit. Those who know the stop are familiar with the unobstructed view of Manhattan and the smoke was evident. From the distance it appeared to be just a big fire. I went down to the subway and emerged at Grand Central, walked over to 5th Ave and upward to my office. About halfway there everything stopped. Traffic stopped. Pedestrians stopped and turned to look south. The second plane had just hit and the non-curious curiosity of city folk fairly quickly moved to panic and concern. I got to the office and all eyes were on the TV monitors that dotted the offices.
The rest of the day was a blurr. Phones were out or overloaded. Cell phones were useless. I got out an email to family saying I was fine and at work...not that I was in any danger but we officed accross from Rockerfeller Center and everyone felt that was a target. My daughter was working at a magazine next to the Empire State Building and they all left work to get out of that area.
About 1p I ventured out to go to the blood bank which was lined up around the block. The first of the wall street workers who were evacuating the area were marching up Madison perhaps to apartments and I was struck by the dust. Those close to the area were easy to spot as they were covered in ash and dust..white concrete dust.
When the railroads opened up late in the day the trains were jammed as car traffic wasn't possible exiting the city. Again the concrete dust. Everyone wanted to ask them questions but there wasn't much talk and the dazed looks somewhat forbid inquiries.
Although not close and in no danger the entire episode is burned in my memory. I hope that it is still in everyone else's.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
HR 1068 The Robin Hood with a wedgie bill
I admit freely to being the only flaming liberal in the area aside from our economist who is fairly off the charts. I believe that taxes are what we pay to have a civilization that functions. That we pay taxes now and we are becoming more disfunctional is a worry. Taxes like HR 1068 advocates however, crosses a line, not so much because I work indirectly with traders who move stock all day long but because the "whereas and wherefores" of the bill as it stands The stupid thing makes no sense.
I suppose that congress just thinks the money is insignificant in part because so many people just buy and hold stocks that this transaction tax will seem like a minor bee sting. So I watched a trader buy 100 shares of a big name stock today on the premise of a big move in the stock after a public announcement. Now he is risking maybe $20,000 and if he did his homework he might take $300 or $400 out of it. If he guesses wrong he will take a loss. With the tax of 0.1% he will take a $200 loss when he buys and another $200 when he sells it. If he worked hard, followed his trade, had great timing, he might break even for the day..or he is going to loose with the tax and the loss maybe 1% of his cash.
What possible incentive would I have to do this? I'm trying to figure if the price is prorated if it would make any difference. What I mean is would traders want to trade only penny stocks?
The entire thing makes my skin hurt. And by the way, the banks went belly up because of stupid management and a whole lot of loans that were ill advised. and this has to do with stocks how?
I suppose that congress just thinks the money is insignificant in part because so many people just buy and hold stocks that this transaction tax will seem like a minor bee sting. So I watched a trader buy 100 shares of a big name stock today on the premise of a big move in the stock after a public announcement. Now he is risking maybe $20,000 and if he did his homework he might take $300 or $400 out of it. If he guesses wrong he will take a loss. With the tax of 0.1% he will take a $200 loss when he buys and another $200 when he sells it. If he worked hard, followed his trade, had great timing, he might break even for the day..or he is going to loose with the tax and the loss maybe 1% of his cash.
What possible incentive would I have to do this? I'm trying to figure if the price is prorated if it would make any difference. What I mean is would traders want to trade only penny stocks?
The entire thing makes my skin hurt. And by the way, the banks went belly up because of stupid management and a whole lot of loans that were ill advised. and this has to do with stocks how?
what television advertising may tell you about a company - part 1
On the trading floor at Prism where I have my space CNBC runs constantly on various monitors on the wall. Aside from noting the time delay in news reporting from the live feeds that also fill general setting, I've noticed as many of you have that some products have found their way into the daily programming. These products, ExtenZe for instance, are usually found in the overnight infomercial space and now are running daytime. What does this tell us about CNBC and such products?
I ask this question with the general caveat that what appears to be a nationally aired commercial may not be. In SE Florida, which is served by Comcast, there is a thing called "upcutting". Normally that term means that part of a commercial, by mechanical/electronic error, plays over the end of the previous commercial. It happens fairly often on certain stations. As :30 commercials are never more than :30 seconds (usually 29+a fraction seconds) it is just bad work in the traffic department when this occurs. Other times however, local advertising via cable dispensors will actually overwrite a national broadcast commercial feed with another commercial. This is a frequent occurance and if you watch a commercial pod (a pod is a group of commercials in a break) closely you will see it because it is a manual overwrite or breakin and is very hard to get right..the result is a small snipet of another commercial or the next commercial seeming to start a few seconds into it....so you can't be positive what is happening...but back to the topic at hand.
Extenze would never have run anywhere except the infomercial space a few years ago simply due to content. Some networks have pushed the envelope from the getgo (Comedy Central for instance) and have run adult oriented spots for years. CNBC is not one of those.
One might think that Extenze is so successful that it can buy national space during the market day on CNBC but remember this is an infomercial product so it runs with a fairly well defined ROI/CPC (cost per call) - they spend so much and expect so many calls/orders. It has to pay out. It is safe to say that a 30 minute infomercial at 3am often doesn't cost as much as a :30second commercial on CNBC during market hours. But lets say they cost the same. For ExtenZe it means that they expect roughly the same number of calls generated by a :30second ad as they do for their middle of the night infomercial.
If this is the situation and the CNBC commercial pays out then end of story. The alternative explanation is that CNBC's junk rate is so low or their inventory is so out of whack that ExtenZe has put in a bid at their CPC expectations for a :30second and CNBC is running it because it is in an undersold position and even some money is better than no money.
The "first blush" would be that ExtenZe is wildly successful and can afford the expenditure. The alternative is that ExtenZe is taking advantage of a really wide open advertising market and it isn't that they are so good, it is because the network is undersold.
I cite ExtenZe because it is fairly well known and by all accounts does pretty well, internet reviews to the contrary. The underlying story could be, though that networks (like CNBC here) might be suffering in the general advertising slump and will sell off the rate card.
Just something to think about as we will be taking a look at what advertising tells us about a company in the next few blog entries.
I ask this question with the general caveat that what appears to be a nationally aired commercial may not be. In SE Florida, which is served by Comcast, there is a thing called "upcutting". Normally that term means that part of a commercial, by mechanical/electronic error, plays over the end of the previous commercial. It happens fairly often on certain stations. As :30 commercials are never more than :30 seconds (usually 29+a fraction seconds) it is just bad work in the traffic department when this occurs. Other times however, local advertising via cable dispensors will actually overwrite a national broadcast commercial feed with another commercial. This is a frequent occurance and if you watch a commercial pod (a pod is a group of commercials in a break) closely you will see it because it is a manual overwrite or breakin and is very hard to get right..the result is a small snipet of another commercial or the next commercial seeming to start a few seconds into it....so you can't be positive what is happening...but back to the topic at hand.
Extenze would never have run anywhere except the infomercial space a few years ago simply due to content. Some networks have pushed the envelope from the getgo (Comedy Central for instance) and have run adult oriented spots for years. CNBC is not one of those.
One might think that Extenze is so successful that it can buy national space during the market day on CNBC but remember this is an infomercial product so it runs with a fairly well defined ROI/CPC (cost per call) - they spend so much and expect so many calls/orders. It has to pay out. It is safe to say that a 30 minute infomercial at 3am often doesn't cost as much as a :30second commercial on CNBC during market hours. But lets say they cost the same. For ExtenZe it means that they expect roughly the same number of calls generated by a :30second ad as they do for their middle of the night infomercial.
If this is the situation and the CNBC commercial pays out then end of story. The alternative explanation is that CNBC's junk rate is so low or their inventory is so out of whack that ExtenZe has put in a bid at their CPC expectations for a :30second and CNBC is running it because it is in an undersold position and even some money is better than no money.
The "first blush" would be that ExtenZe is wildly successful and can afford the expenditure. The alternative is that ExtenZe is taking advantage of a really wide open advertising market and it isn't that they are so good, it is because the network is undersold.
I cite ExtenZe because it is fairly well known and by all accounts does pretty well, internet reviews to the contrary. The underlying story could be, though that networks (like CNBC here) might be suffering in the general advertising slump and will sell off the rate card.
Just something to think about as we will be taking a look at what advertising tells us about a company in the next few blog entries.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Renaissance Man
Occasionally one has the honor to meet someone who has a world view outside his refined specialty. Perhaps rarer still is finding someone who happens to know a whole lot about nearly everything and has a mind that never rests. You need to read about Dr. Jarecki sometime. Google him. He probably has goggled you just out of curiousity as the best single thing you can learn from him is "look at and for everything".
It is interesting that the website has Thomas Gresham's picture in the masthead. Bad money drives out good is a point to ponder.....meaning far more than the application to tendre laws to which it is usually applied.
See what you find when you poke around some.
TV Ratings...revisiting an old article
Just so you know, television ratings translate to advertising dollars. It was of no small importance when ratings began to include metered markets, where instead of diaries, so brainiac decided that since ratings were notoriously inaccurate as they were once computed technology could could figure out exactly what the tv viewer was watching without his help.
Its complicated but to be accurate TV stations had to purchase Nielsen Audio Video Encoders (NAVEs) so that Nielsen could tell one station signal from another. So now a fair number of cities are metered and "lo and behold" ratings are dropping like a rock. That means less ad revenue or, better put, the same amount of ad revenue just divided up more ways.
It is about accuracy and diversity and when folks decry the supposed decrease in TV viewing a lot of it can be explained by prior "over-estimating" of the viewing audience and the more choices available to viewers including nearly everything being available online.
Read the article and think about how things are now, two years after the writing.
Its complicated but to be accurate TV stations had to purchase Nielsen Audio Video Encoders (NAVEs) so that Nielsen could tell one station signal from another. So now a fair number of cities are metered and "lo and behold" ratings are dropping like a rock. That means less ad revenue or, better put, the same amount of ad revenue just divided up more ways.
It is about accuracy and diversity and when folks decry the supposed decrease in TV viewing a lot of it can be explained by prior "over-estimating" of the viewing audience and the more choices available to viewers including nearly everything being available online.
Read the article and think about how things are now, two years after the writing.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Even on Holiday Weekends there are Traders
Unlike Florida with loads of public access, the towns out on the east end (the Hamptons) have very few ways to get on the beach. There are huge public park beaches here and there but its $10 per. If you live in my village you can get a beach pass and parking sticker otherwis you mostly have to stay in a place that has some passes otherwise no go.
When the storm of the century went through here in the early 90s (that huge nor'easter that they made the movie about) the ocean was up to where this picture was taken and all the barrier grass and dunes were gone. This is 17 years of reclamation.
Anyway, the beach was fairly crowded...maybe 300 people total over the mile of frontage (that's crowded for here....I'm not talking Florida) and who can afford such luxury? Little know secret is that the Hamptons are supported by the financial markets - not by investments althoughmost people do - but by Wall Street Bonus. It hits out here about the time it is issued as real estate agents have countless open houses and the Inns, Motels, resorts and restaurants all jack their prices.
Anyway, its labor day today and I'd personally like to thank all those who work so I can work.
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