While the Internet was still young...Walmart v. Amazon

Today is, by the way, the 150th anniversary of the publication of Darwin's Origin of Species and in case it isn't bedside reading (or bathroom reading), it obviously dealt with survival of the fittest or at the very least issues of natural selection.  Actually the book was written for the non-scientist and is a great read if you are into that sort of thing.

An article in the NYTimes today (Walmart v. Amazon) is coincidental. I can remember vividly early press and financil reports on Amazon when the CEO was asked if they ever ever ever  could turn a profit and he flatly said he didn't think so.  It was all about distribution, supply, warehousing etc. and a very tough nut to crack.  As to Walmart, I've known one of the Walton kids since about 1980 (brother is that a long story) and it was before he joined the family business which at that point was all about Target v. Walmart.  Walmart's plan was simple. Price.

I encountered  the Walmart price issue first hand in the middle 90s when I headed a  madia planning and buying team for video releases (vhs of theatricals), and we had discussions (if you can call them that) with Walmart regarding the pending release of Babe - the pig movie. 

They were the 800 pound gorilla and would pre-buy a million but at a price that simply had to be the best price or no deal. They also wanted guaranteed advertising (we spent about 8 million $ in 2 weeks) and all kinds of other things. They got it and frankly those million or so units shipped to Walmart were a lost leader both to us and to them.  They could do what they wanted because, simply, they could and there was no one biting at their heels.

Enter Amazon, now, a piddling orphan compared to Walmart but with enormous brand cache and recognition. They have fixed distribution and are doing as well as anyone in this economy.  But what they bring to the table is competition, niche as it may be.  In the 12 years or so of existence, it has morphed into an Internet giant and the online equivilent to the box store Walmart concept.

My issue here, and it relates to Darwin (which you must read) is that all big species faced their greatest threat when they had smaller species to contend with.  These smaller guys disrupted the chain - futzed with the food chain so to speak - and the big guys either had to adapt or die off.  It may take a while but that is the name of the game.  The  NYTimes quote is very telling:

“If you are Wal-Mart, you want to have your proportional piece of this change in consumer behavior,” said Scot Wingo, chief executive of ChannelAdvisor, which helps retailers sell online. “You can even paint a scenario where e-commerce one day is 15 percent of all shopping, and that could really start to erode Wal-Mart’s offline business.”

We are going to put it on display for everyone....

"It was a bargain - we were expecting to pay more," said Hoffman Ma, a Hong Kong hotel executive. "We're going to put it on display in our hotel. It will be free for everyone."

What in the world?  $350,00 plus commission, taxes, etc. so well over $425,000 when things are all counted and they "were expecting to pay more".

We take home several lessons from this:

1.  It was Hong Kong and not Vegas or Atlantic City which wil shed a spotlight on the Vegas and Atlantic City economies.
2.  It was  bought for a crowd drawing appeal item and probably will bring folks into the venue...so we have to ask where is this marvel to excess going to be placed?

This later question is a big issue.  How far would people be willing to travel to view said glove, (as a marketer), be willing to travel to see it? It obviously will be a big draw but let's say that the town of Bay City, Michigan (population 50,000) bought it and put it on Main and Center streets to draw people downtown to shop. And here is the marketing rub.  After a month or so, all of Bay City's shopping traffic will have seen the glove and unless you want to go from afar to Bay City to see it then the glove purchase won't pay out. Or will it?

A study showed that the average downtown Bay City shopper spent just under $60 per shopping visit. That means the glove would have to pay out to the tune of 7,000 new shoppers and not just viewers.  Amortize the  glove's attraction to 10 years and thats about 2 new shoppers a day.  Fairly likely and very possible.

Now with our Hong Kong friend, say he runs a 500 room hotel (for instance) and at Hong Kong rates of $500/night what does he have to pull in? Maybe 1000 more room bookings in total?  Put that to an average stay of 2 nights, meals etc., and he is down to perhaps ONE (1) more booking a day FOR A YEAR to make this pay out.

Nice buy.  A steal actually.  Our Hong Kong friend probably estimates that he will make 10 times profit on his investment and that's not counting street traffic who may dine at the hotel or otherwise use it's shops or facilities in some way.  The word of mouth publicity is probably alone worth the purchase price.

Did you hear that Vegas? Atlantic City? Penny foolish.

Its funny what people like to read about

This isn't a swipe at Sarah.  This is a swipe at news that purposefully gets it wrong or makes lame apologies for "inadevertant mistakes".

I've been in advertising for over 20 years and let me tell you advertisers "watch" where their advertising dollars go.  When the likes of a Glenn Beck call the President a racists it causes viewership trouble and advertisers pull out - not only because of the perceived association with the remarks but because there might be a problem with ratings.  Rarely does a show "shoot up" in ratings because of a fire...they may short term as folks tune in to see what the ruckus is about....but after they do, they generally leave.

Now we have had two Fox News "inadvertent mistakes" in a week.  Let me remind you that the folks in the control rooms of major cable networks usually don't get things wrong...and when a script emphasises "footage" you can darn well be sure that things were checked.

You can't watch the news and have to wonder if the stuff you are seeing in background to illustrate the story is real or not. 

This isn't Sarah's fault. Frankly it is our fault.  Journalism, or what passes for it nowadays, is given special status in the constitution.  The obligation is to "get it right" and don't hide fabrications behind a constitutional protection. Truth is too important.

Morgan Stanley’s Mack: ‘We Cannot Control Ourselves’

I'll just put Mr. Mack's picture over there on the right for a while until I understand him a little better.  You might want to read Sorkin's "Dealbook" at the Times this morning.  Seems Mr. Mack has more to say about regulators and the ability of a firm like Morgan Stanley to "police itself".

I am wondering what this has to say about the human condition.  The illustration bouncing around in my head is of a mother of a diabetic child.  The kid loves candy and she knows it isn't good for him but gives it to him anyway so the kid will feel less deprived. The kid can't help himself and the mom, who is in charge of the kid, sees the short term solution but neglects the long term consequences.

Where do people learn not to abide by common sense and self restraint?  Mack seems to be highly intelligent and by a measure of profits, extremely capable.  Does he, however, ever wake up in the morning and say "no, we shouldn't do that..it would be wrong".

I watched Cramer once on TV when asked the same moral question regarding the duty to society and the duty to the shareholders.  He laughed as if there was no question there worth considering. Suppose I have a lot to learn about the corporate world and the greater good.  Still, I wonder where people learn that stuff.

You just have to pick the "right" school....

So I spent the afternoon at yet another "learn how to trade stocks" seminar put on by some nare-thee-wells who go around the country renting hotel rooms, running late night infomercials, and taking poor innocents' money that they are trying to both save and grow.

I don't like these guys and guys like them one bit.

The entire seminar was one jawdropping "how would YOU like to be in control" question after another.....everything from "make a million" to "never have to work again". 
Just take our two day course and know all you need to know. It's regularly $6000 but if you sign up right now we will cut it to $3,995....blah blah blah.

If you sign up right now you get a 1/3 discount which is like the supermarket where the jack up the price of hamburger and sell it two for one. 

These guys remind me of the school in the picture. Foundation borded up and the upper windows open.  MORAL:  All schools aren't alike.  No two are.  Keep track of Prism Trading School (http://www.prismtradingschool.com/) ... we will never be like those guys.

Mr. Know It All

Remember?  Our good friend Mr. Know It All?...and cooking the Thanksgiving turkey....

Just how many Mr. Know It Alls prance around on our TV sets every night.  The redundit Kudlow, always looking for the silver lining, the hysterical Cramer, the pompous Dobbs, the bloviating Matthews, the incessant Obermann, the churlish Madow, the entire cast of fools at Faux Noise and we haven't even reached talk radio.

So why Bullwinkle's famous turkey bit and why the list of bad actors? Because they have something in common.  Bad advice.  Because they have the floor as  Bullwinkle has the stove, they can say about anything they please and do.  It doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they have the stove and they are going to do what they want, common sense and facts aside.

So this is a blog about life among traders and trading.  Frankly there is no more honest profession.  These guys are trading real money and if they just do hunches and "I thinks" then they are going to be out money - their money - real money so they can't go into flights of fantasy.  Provacatures need not apply.

A view from Space

Now that the holidays approach I'm reminded of Scrooge and the unfurling of the two child/orphans of man "ignorance" and "want".  Dickens was allagorical enough to realize that these two offspring come in many forms...from poor illiterates to mindless greed types.  Want takes many forms from hunger to Madoff greed.  Ignorance is even more disperate.

So what of this picture?  If I were on the Enterprise and Captain Kirk took a look down at his earth and was asked to pick the "average Joe" from the population...someone who stood right on the mid-line of the bell curve...what or who would he find?
Statistically it would be a rural Chinese making about $3000 a year and there are more than a few million of them.  It would not be an American or a European nor someone from a lost tribe in the Phillipines. Statistically we are in Western China somewhere and this is the guy.  He isn't ignorant. Perhaps just not educated.  He isn't poor by his contemporary standards and perhaps he doesn't "want" in the conventional sense except in times of poor harvest.  So what's the point?

You should read Mr. Krugman's article (click here).  Then think that we have policy makers making huge decisions that effect the very fabric of society - economics and values.  They make them on a basis that is so far removed from the "average Joe" just trying to get by.  We argue about the trade imbalance between China and the US and the Rinimbi v. the Dollar.  Our average Joe's life isn't much effected by the currency "crisis" (opposed to the US's Joe who is creamed by it). 

The point is that the debates swirl at a level that is light years from the persons directly effected by the outcome. The gap or disconnect is huge.  All the average Joe knows is that his life is the same as it was years or decades back yet it is somehow harder and he is less and less connected to those making decisions - the the decision makers are, unfortunately just another set of ignorance and want.